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AFC & NFC Championship Game Predictions

1/17/2020

POSTED 1/17/2020

AFC Championship
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs
(Chiefs -7.5)

There’s no secret to what the Tennessee Titans need to do if they want to continue their remarkable playoff run. They’ll need to bleed the clock with their run game and the Chiefs’ number of snaps to a minimum. That’s it. Anything less will make for a long day on Sunday.

Luckily, their one strength is Kansas City’s biggest weakness. The Chiefs run defense was 26th in the NFL, surrendering an average of 128.2 yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry. Derrick Henry has been nothing short of dominant in the two victories against New England and Baltimore. He’s rushed for 377 yards which is already the seventh best total in postseason history. It’s even more impressive when you see that Ryan Tannehill has only 160 passing yards total. The Titans will have to find ways to pressure Mahomes with their front four without a blitz, much like they did to Lamar Jackson last week and force as many three and outs as possible. If Tennessee allows Patrick Mahomes and company to get into the red-zone, it’ll be lights out. The Titans had the second worst red-zone defense in the NFL, allowing opponents to score touchdowns 68.1% of the time.

That stat doesn’t bode well for the Titans. Kansas City can score on anyone from anywhere on the field and do it quickly. They spotted Houston 24 points before scoring touchdowns on seven straight possessions, the most in a playoff game since 1970. Patrick Mahomes took a backseat to Lamar Jackson in terms of media coverage this season, but he showed once again how dangerous he and that Chiefs aerial attack still is. Even if Tennessee executes their game plan perfectly, it still may not be good enough to win. Much like the 1985 Villanova Wildcats, the Titans will have to play the perfect game to win. Kansas City wins 28-17.

NFC Championship
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
(49ers -7.5)

Trips to California haven’t gone well for the Green Bay Packers this season. In two games in the Golden State, they are 0-2 and have been outscored 63-19. Their last trip was a November 37-8 thrashing at the hands of the 49ers.

Aside from the all-everything Aaron Rodgers, the Packers have a good running back in Aaron Jones, the dynamic Davatne Adams, and one of the best offensive lines in the league. On defense, they have Za'Darius and Preston Smith, the only teammates to record double digits in sacks this season.

The 49ers have been one of the stingiest defense all season, especially on third down. They ranked second in third down efficiency in the regular season and held Minnesota to 2-of-12 in the divisional round. They’ll need to be as dominant against Rodgers, who they sacked five times in their previous matchup. On offense, the 49ers have the NFL’s second best rushing attack, a steady and sometimes spectacular Jimmy Garappolo, and matchup nightmare George Kittle. Kittle has averaged 86.5 receptions, 1,215 yards and five touchdowns in the past two seasons.

The trouble with Green Bay is they don’t have enough answers for the San Francisco offense. The 49ers want to run the ball, but the Packers had the 23rd ranked rushing defense. They know Kittle is their best option in their passing game, but don’t have an answer for him. I won’t expect a replay of their last matchup, but if Green Bay can’t keep the 49er rush off Rodgers and can’t stop the 49ers offense, it’ll be another long day. I’m picking San Francisco to win 27-17.

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